God Morgen - Morgenrapport

US stocks were up – SPX +0,62% and NDX +0,94% – with nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors outperforming on renewed investor interest – Micron Technology, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and NXP advancing between 5,6% and 10% (MU). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the CES conference in Las Vegas that the company is seeing strong customer demand in China for its H200 AI chips.

Asian shares are dowm – CSI -0,25%, HSI -1,07%, NKY -1,06%.

Euro Stoxx 50 is flat +0,08%.

Brent 60,06/bbl and WTI 56,19/bbl.

European gas (TTF) USD 9,65/MMBtu.

Gold 4449,25/oz, silver 79,31/oz, BTC 92.708.

Pareto: SEAFOOD - SALM + LSG + NOAP + MAS Trading update

SALM – Harvest volumes came in 2.4kt above guidance, driven by strong Central performance late in Q4 as sea lice pressure eased and temperatures stayed high. We see FY25e EPS up ~2% mechanically, but expect consensus to revise Central estimates down as price achievement looks too optimistic and harvest weights were weak through the quarter.

LSG – Slight volume beat vs PAS/consensus (+1%), led by Aurora (+4%), while wild catch came in softer. Overall, no material impact expected on 2026 estimates.

NOAP – Harvest of 353t exceeded guidance (316t) with solid quality (93% superior) and 3.3kg HOG weights. Biomass continues to build, and the company remains on track for first Stage 2 harvest in September 2026.

MAS – Harvest volumes of 8.7kt beat guidance by 0.9kt, helped by low sea lice pressure and strong biology late in the quarter. We expect this to lift FY25e EBIT consensus by ~15%.

NAS: Capacity decline of 5% at NAS was spot on expectations, leaving FY’25 ASK up ~3%. The ~3pp uptick in load factor is solid, but comes against fairly easy comps, while the close-to-flat yield was a disappointment versus PAS/consensus expectations of +2–3%. Our understanding is that this is predominantly explained by softer performance in Denmark and Finland as the competitive landscape has intensified, with Northern Norway also lagging after NAS added a meaningful amount of new capacity. The opposite was seen at Widerøe, where load factor fell ~6pp while yields increased 8%. The weaker load factor is largely explained by limited wet-lease and charter activity this December versus last year, combined with improving regularity driving supply growth aggressively that demand has not been able to absorb. In sum, we estimate Q4 revenue at NOK 8.55–8.60bn, in line with, if not slightly below, consensus (0.6% below PAS). With much of the positive revisions we previously anticipated now halted, we would expect a negative reaction today. Hold, TP NOK 18.