Inside Oslo Børs - Tekniske Modeller - Torsdag 12 mars

Disclaimer - se taktiskinside.com og i de ordinære utgavene. 

Sector Briefing: Energy (56.54 +0.06)

Følger USA sektoren tett siden trender på Wall Street føres over til de norske. Det er ikke noen spesielt store bevegelser til tross for den sterke økningen i WTI / Brent futures og dette kan være et viktig signal på metning og at markedet ikke er villig til å prise denne høye prisen inn for året som helhet. Markedet kan via endringene til aksjene signalisere at investorer kan være i ferd med å bli |mettet av oljeaksjer. WTI crude opp 11,7 % og den beste oljeaksjen i på denne listen er + 1,7 %?? Se nærmere på de vedlagte chartene...

The S&P 500 (-1.3%) remains pressured by losses in ten sectors with seven down at least 1.0% while energy (+0.1%) outperforms, holding a slight gain.

Key factors driving today's performance include:

• Pressure from a continued rise in the price of oil as WTI crude climbs $9.43, or 11.7%, to $90.45/bbl, its highest level since October 2023. President Trump said yesterday that his administration is looking to counter the increase, but that has not stopped oil from extending this week's gain to $23.39/bbl or 34.9%. NEC Director Hassett said today that there has been no discussions about utilizing the strategic petroleum reserve.

• Fresh 52-week highs in three components and gains in roughly half of the remaining listings keeping the sector in positive territory for the week. The energy sector is up 1.0% since last Friday versus a 2.0% week-to-date loss in the S&P 500.

Notable movers:

• Occidental Petroleum (OXY 54.15, +0.91, +1.71%): best performer in the sector, trading in the upper half of yesterday's range.

• APA (APA 32.82, +0.44, +1.34%): rising to its best level since April 2024.

• Diamondback Energy (FANG 181.10, +2.06, +1.15%): on track for its best close since November 2024.

• Expand Energy (EXE 107.52, +0.85, +0.79%): rising back above its 50-day (106.60) and 200-day (107.33) moving averages.

• ConocoPhillips (COP 117.58, +0.76, +0.65%): trading near the midpoint of this week's range.

• EOG Resources (EOG 131.84, +0.81, +0.62%): seeking its best close since February 2025.

• Devon Energy (DVN 44.77, +0.25, +0.56%): rising toward its February high (46.15).

• Exxon Mobil (XOM 151.46, +0.70, +0.46%): approached the midpoint of its range from Tuesday before narrowing its gain.

• Chevron (CVX 189.56, -0.34, -0.18%): hit a fresh record high before turning negative.

• Marathon Petroleum (MPC 216.00, -1.36, -0.63%): deepening yesterday's reversal from a record high.

• Phillips 66 (PSX 162.45, -3.99, -2.40%): falling from record territory.

• Valero (VLO 222.52, -5.51, -2.42%): weakest performer in the sector, dipping from a record high.

S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 - TEKNISK KOMMENTAR

LINK MOBILITY - TRE TOPP KJØPSSIGNAL - COUNTER TREND!

INSIDE APP

Min opprinnelige plan var å bruke Inside App primært til å formidle aksjer, hvor de tekniske modellene har utløst signaler. Men i perioder hvor det er færre aksjer som utløser signaler eller som nå befinner seg i modne eller ekstreme oppganger blir det langt færre å formidle.

Jeg kommer derfor til å utvide med oppdateringer, som jeg tror kan fange interesse. Både tekniske, fundamentale og makro begivenheter, som jeg vurderer vil få betydning for norske aksjer og Oslo Børs. 

Blir det for mange oppdateringer kan man slå av disse oppdateringene av og selv gå inn og sjekke Inside Chat når man selv ønsker. 

Min målsetning er at Inside App skal formidle meget relevant informasjon, som jeg selv bruker i min forvaltning som jeg også tror kan være aktuell for dere som investorer. 

Tar gjerne imot innspill på hva du ønsker at Inside App skal formidle, oppdatere, være og hvordan den kan bidra positivt til dine investeringsbeslutninger. 

Ha en fortsatt hyggelig kveld, Mvh RK

WALL STREET - OLJEAKSJER & FRONTLINE

Sector Briefing: Energy (56.15 -0.37)

The S&P 500 (+0.9%) trades at its best level of the session with eight sectors holding gains while energy (-0.8%) is the worst performer.

Key factors driving today's performance include:

Receding worries about significant supply interruptions due to the conflict with Iran after President Trump's announcement that the U.S. will offer maritime insurance to vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, filling a void created by Lloyd's of London refusing to offer coverage after last weekend's strikes.

Continued profit taking after the sector's surge to start the week. The energy sector is back to unchanged for the week, holding a 24.5% gain for Q1.

Modestly higher price of oil, as WTI crude rises $0.26, or 0.4%, to $74.81/bbl, though it remains below yesterday's high (77.98).

A report from Bloomberg that Interior Secretary Burum is being sent to Venezuela to help revive the country's oil and mineral extraction.

Outperformance in refining names.

Notable movers:

APA (APA 31.02, -0.83, -2.61%): weakest performer in the sector, deepening this week's reversal from its best level since August 2024.

ConocoPhillips (COP 115.74, -2.78, -2.35%): deepening yesterday's reversal from its best level since May 2024.

Baker Hughes (BKR 61.11, -1.43, -2.29%): deepening this week's reversal from its best level since December 2016.

Halliburton (HAL 34.45, -0.64, -1.82%): deepening this week's reversal from its best level since July 2024.

Chevron (CVX 185.96, -2.81, -1.49%): deepening this week's reversal from a record high.

Exxon Mobil (XOM 150.16, -1.67, -1.10%): deepening this week's reversal from a record high.

SLB (SLB 48.08, -0.51, -1.04%): deepening this week's reversal from its best level since April 2024 with its 50-day moving average (46.96) looming below.

Williams Companies (WMB 75.26, -0.62, -0.82%): deepening this week's reversal from a record high.

Phillips 66 (PSX 163.93, +4.15, +2.59%): seeking its best close since April 2024.

Valero (VLO 224.75, +7.04, +3.23%): rising to a fresh record high.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC 220.26, +8.28, +3.91%): best performer in the sector, seeking a fresh record close.

OSLO BØRS - AKSELERASJONSFASE

NVIDIA - STERKE TALL

Nvidia +1.2% rn forecast revenue for the first quarter; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.

FIRST QUARTER FORECAST

• Sees revenue $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion, estimate $72.78 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

FOURTH QUARTER RESULTS

• Revenue $68.13 billion, +73% y/y, estimate $65.91 billion

  • Data center revenue $62.3 billion, +75% y/y, estimate $60.36 billion

  • Gaming revenue $3.7 billion, +48% y/y, estimate $4.01 billion

  • Professional Visualization revenue $1.3 billion vs. $511 million y/y, estimate $770.7 million

  • Automotive revenue $604 million, +6% y/y, estimate $643.2 million

• Adjusted gross margin 75.2%

• Adjusted operating expenses $5.10 billion, +51% y/y, estimate $4.96 billion

• Adjusted operating income $46.11 billion, +81% y/y, estimate $44.56 billion

• R&D expenses $5.51 billion, +48% y/y, estimate $5.38 billion

• Adjusted EPS $1.62

• Free cash flow $34.90 billion vs. $15.52 billion y/y

COMMENTARY AND CONTEXT

For the full year fiscal 2027, GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be between 17.0% and 19.0%, excluding any discrete items and material changes to NVIDIA's tax environment