TANKERS

Arctic Sec: Tankers: VLs soar anew as market eyes shift in trade flows.

Following a wobbly start to the New year, the VLCC market is staging a sharp turnaround with the Baltic’s daily TCE assessment jumping+59% d-d yesterday. Suez- and Aframaxes followed suit, albeit gains were much more moderate, lifting the Baltic +3.9% in the process.

The US taking control of sanctioned Venezuelan crude, which means loving it to the market via compliant tonnage, is a near-term trigger. In the bigger picture, the market is eyeing a potential shift in China’s supply patterns, reducing its intake of sanctioned oils, after this week’s signals from the US that it is taking a tougher stance against sanctioned oils, thus boosting trade prospects for the compliant fleet.

Market sources are already reporting increased Chinese interest in Canadian supplies.

Fundamental news has also been on the strong side this week, further supporting rate strength. India’s Nov oil imports topped the 5 mbd mark for the first time since May, up a very strong +11% y-y, and Brazil’s Dec exports rose +0.15 mbd m-m, tying it for an all-time high with January. Its y-y gain was a spectacular +95%, although that owed more to and artificially depressed year-ago figure.

 Oil & tankers: Russia hits Ukraine with intermediate ballistic missile. This morning's Russian attack on Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile, one of its most advance weapons, further sharpens front. pushing any peace deal out. Market likely to see it as leading to a further step-up in sanctions. Brent up +$0.64 @ $62.63.

OSLO BØRS - TEKNISK OVERSIKT MED FOKUS PÅ VOLUM, TRENDER & MOMENTUM

Har i kveld laget et regneark som vil være real-time under sesjonen slik at jeg raskt kan finne frem til de aksjene som det er unormalt volum. Eller som nærmer seg eller har brutt over eller under 50 dager snittet. 

Ved å bruke avstanden til 50 dager vil det forholdstallet kombinert med RSI-14 momentum kunne raskt indikere at aksjene er overkjøpt eller oversolgt.

Volumet er den viktigste komponenten da dette signaliserer om kjøperne eller selgerne har eller kan ta over kontrollen. 

Regnearket vil raskere kunne fortelle meg hvilke aksjer som skal granskes nærmere for fundamentale eller tekniske årsaker. Samt hvilke aksjer som skiller seg ut, som må sjekkes opp mot de tekniske modellene. 

Det kan være noen småfeil i regnarket da det er en del formler og tall :-) Men de finner jeg eventuelt ut av etterhvert. 

USA PRE MARKED : Technical Scans for Thursday, January 8

Briefing: U.S. equity futures are under pressure heading into the session, extending the uneasy tone that followed Wednesday’s selloff.

S&P 500 futures are down 16 points (-23 bp),

Dow futures are off 174 points (-35 bp),

Nasdaq futures are lower by 74 points (-33 bp),

and Russell 2000 futures are leading to the downside with a 44 bp decline.

The overnight weakness reflects a mix of policy-driven uncertainty and profit-taking after a strong start to the year.

Markets continue to digest President Trump’s latest economic interventions—most notably proposals to bar institutional investors from buying single-family homes and to restrict dividends and buybacks at defense contractors—while also reacting to choppy global tech price action and renewed geopolitical noise tied to Venezuela and Russia sanctions. Add in soft price action across metals and crypto, and risk appetite is clearly on pause rather than gone.

Europe is following the U.S. lower, with major Eurozone indices down roughly 20–30 bp.

Sector performance is defensive in character: consumer staples, banks, insurance, defense contractors, healthcare, and utilities are outperforming, while energy, retail, technology, autos, staffing, and basic resources lag. U.K. grocers were a notable weak spot, with Associated British Foods and Tesco both under pressure on earnings-related disappointment.

Defense stocks, however, are bid across the region after Trump floated a $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget proposal, reinforcing the idea that Wednesday’s selloff in the group may have been more headline-driven than fundamental.

Asian markets mostly closed lower, led by Japan, where the Nikkei fell 1.63% and the Topix slid 0.77%. Hong Kong equities also declined, with the Hang Seng down 1.17%, while mainland China was mixed and relatively resilient.

Technology was the main drag across the region: Baidu fell 3.3%, Lenovo dropped 5.6%, SoftBank Group slid 7.6%, and Tokyo Electron lost 4%. Samsung Electronics declined about 1.2% in South Korea despite reporting strong preliminary Q4 results, a reaction that stood out.

The message from Asia was clear: even good numbers are no longer enough when expectations are stretched and sentiment is fragile.

On the macro front, Treasuries are largely unchanged, with the 10-year holding around 4.16%.

The dollar is modestly firmer, with the DXY up about 10 bp. Commodities are mixed: Brent crude is rebounding roughly 75 bp after two days of declines,

while gold (-60 bp), silver (-275 bp), and bitcoin (-135 bp) are all under pressure.

Political risk remains an undercurrent, with the Powell succession race tightening—Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are both priced at 39% on Polymarket—and renewed attention on sanctions against Russia, which could ripple through energy and defense markets.

Earnings and corporate news are providing plenty of single-stock volatility. Samsung’s strong preliminary Q4 print—sales of KRW93T and operating income of KRW20T—was met with selling, reinforcing concerns that optimism around memory and AI hardware may be fully priced. I

Defense stocks are a focal point again this morning.

After being hit hard Wednesday on Trump’s executive order restricting dividends and buybacks, the group rebounded sharply in premarket trading following his call for a dramatic increase in military spending. Names such as Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, and General Dynamics are all seeing renewed interest. The takeaway is volatility, not clarity—policy risk is now part of the valuation framework for the sector.

In terms of events to watch, the U.S. economic calendar is light, with jobless claims and productivity data unlikely to move markets materially unless there’s a surprise. Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent is scheduled to speak, which could generate headlines. More important is the policy backdrop: expected executive actions on housing affordability, developments on Russia sanctions, and ongoing legal scrutiny of tariffs all have the potential to inject fresh volatility.

Stepping back, the broader trend still looks like a market that is consolidating after strong gains rather than one that is breaking down.

Sentiment is cooling at the margins—the AAII bull-bear spread narrowed to +12.5%—but bulls still outnumber bears. The recent pullback feels more like a reminder that perfection is priced in than a signal of a regime shift.

For now, investors are rotating defensively, questioning stretched tech valuations, and relearning an old lesson: policy headlines matter, especially when they arrive faster than earnings revisions.

VEND - FORTSATT PÅ STOCK WATCH - PF KJØP 291!

WALL STREET - SLUTTKURSER m/ norske 

The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 fall from Tuesday's record close as oil and gold prices retreat. Crude prices decline as President Trump says U.S. will receive sanctioned Venezuelan crude and continue controlling sales indefinitely. Home-builder stocks drop after Trump posts on social media that he would take steps to ban large investors from buying single-family homes, while defense shares are hurt as he says in a separate post that he would bar them from issuing dividends and stock buybacks, citing overly high executive pay and unsatisfactory delivery of military equipment. DJIA falls 466 points, or 0.9%, to 48996, the S&P 500 loses 0.3% to 6920, while the Nasdaq gains 0.2% to 23584.

TANKERS -> rates higher // FW: TANKERS -> Marinera boarded by US coast guard/military /// TANKERS -->Big uptick in tanker values

Det er høye volumer og et kraftig momentum. Ratene forventes til å stige kraftig. Amerikanerne tar og angriper i skyggeflåten, tar lasten og det vil kunne ekskludere mange skip, som gjør at ratene forventes å stige samtidig som skipsverdiene også stiger. Oppgangene er altså, etter min oppfatning basert på fundamentale signaler. Sjekk med en shipping-analytiker. Rent teknisk er det ekstremt oppsidemomentum i aksjene og flere av de stiger på et markant volum. Har lagt ved noen charts!

NORDIC SEMICONDUCTOR – tester nytt PF kjøpssignal og teknisk brudd opp

Har utløst et objektivt PF kjøpssignal ved 139,50 hvor modellen har et indikativt kursmål på 158.

• Trendindikatoren har utløst et objektivt kjøpssignal i modellen (8/20) og det over 50 dager støtten.

• Taktisktrendindikator viser en bedring og fornyet momentum.

• Har også steget over 50 dager motstanden idag.

• Bevegelsen sammenfaller med sterk utvikling i Silicon Lab.

• NOD er i skrivende stund blitt løftet over konsolideringsboksen og volumet er helt greit.

• Det er interessant å se at volumprofilen indikerer svært lite med overliggende motstand samtidig som kursen drar over forrige topp og konsolideringsboksen, og at den stiger over det nivået som er det mest omsatte nivået sett over perioden fra juli.

Samlet sett ser det tekniske sterkt ut på kort sikt. Flere av de tekniske modellene og volumprofilen indikerer aktive kjøpssignaler.

BWLPG - STIGER SVAKT VIDERE OG TESTER BRUDD OPP!

Mangler litt på volumet, men det kan komme på close. Kommentar i chartet. 

FRONTLINE STIGER - RATENE STRAMMER SEG TIL!

Fikk denne fra en megler på rate futures: Tankers - FFA momentum accellerating. Suezmaxes now +5-7%, but VLCCs surging. February now +8%, Q2/Q3 +8% / 6%

Frontline reagerte prompt og har nå kommet opp til 20 dager motstanden og tester toppen av nedtrenden. Volumet er lavt og det mest omsatte nivået venter noen kroner opp.  

God Morgen - Morgenrapport

US stocks were up – SPX +0,62% and NDX +0,94% – with nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors outperforming on renewed investor interest – Micron Technology, Texas Instruments, Analog Devices and NXP advancing between 5,6% and 10% (MU). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the CES conference in Las Vegas that the company is seeing strong customer demand in China for its H200 AI chips.

Asian shares are dowm – CSI -0,25%, HSI -1,07%, NKY -1,06%.

Euro Stoxx 50 is flat +0,08%.

Brent 60,06/bbl and WTI 56,19/bbl.

European gas (TTF) USD 9,65/MMBtu.

Gold 4449,25/oz, silver 79,31/oz, BTC 92.708.

Pareto: SEAFOOD - SALM + LSG + NOAP + MAS Trading update

SALM – Harvest volumes came in 2.4kt above guidance, driven by strong Central performance late in Q4 as sea lice pressure eased and temperatures stayed high. We see FY25e EPS up ~2% mechanically, but expect consensus to revise Central estimates down as price achievement looks too optimistic and harvest weights were weak through the quarter.

LSG – Slight volume beat vs PAS/consensus (+1%), led by Aurora (+4%), while wild catch came in softer. Overall, no material impact expected on 2026 estimates.

NOAP – Harvest of 353t exceeded guidance (316t) with solid quality (93% superior) and 3.3kg HOG weights. Biomass continues to build, and the company remains on track for first Stage 2 harvest in September 2026.

MAS – Harvest volumes of 8.7kt beat guidance by 0.9kt, helped by low sea lice pressure and strong biology late in the quarter. We expect this to lift FY25e EBIT consensus by ~15%.

NAS: Capacity decline of 5% at NAS was spot on expectations, leaving FY’25 ASK up ~3%. The ~3pp uptick in load factor is solid, but comes against fairly easy comps, while the close-to-flat yield was a disappointment versus PAS/consensus expectations of +2–3%. Our understanding is that this is predominantly explained by softer performance in Denmark and Finland as the competitive landscape has intensified, with Northern Norway also lagging after NAS added a meaningful amount of new capacity. The opposite was seen at Widerøe, where load factor fell ~6pp while yields increased 8%. The weaker load factor is largely explained by limited wet-lease and charter activity this December versus last year, combined with improving regularity driving supply growth aggressively that demand has not been able to absorb. In sum, we estimate Q4 revenue at NOK 8.55–8.60bn, in line with, if not slightly below, consensus (0.6% below PAS). With much of the positive revisions we previously anticipated now halted, we would expect a negative reaction today. Hold, TP NOK 18.